Trading USD/JPY
As a result of relatively low bid-ask spreads and enticing liquidity, trading the USD/JPY is a popular major currency pair. Also, its characteristics make it a tempting proposition for both beginners and experienced traders. This page will break down the history of the currency pair, as well its benefits and drawbacks. How to start day trading the USD/JPY in 2024 will then be covered, from charts and signals to strategy and trading hours.
USD/JPY Trading Brokers
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1FOREX.comActive Trader Program With A 15% Reduction In Costs
Ratings
$1000.01 Lots1:50NFA, CFTCForex, Stocks, Futures, Futures OptionsMT4, MT5, TradingView, eSignal, AutoChartist, TradingCentralWire Transfer, Credit Card, Debit Card, Visa, Mastercard, Skrill, Neteller, ACH TransferUSD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, JPY, CHF, PLN -
2NinjaTrader
Ratings
$00.01 Lots1:50NFA, CFTCForex, Stocks, Options, Commodities, Futures, CryptoNinjaTrader Desktop, Web & Mobile, eSignalACH Transfer, Debit Card, Wire Transfer, ChequeUSD -
3Interactive Brokers
Ratings
$0$1001:50FCA, SEC, FINRA, CFTC, CBI, CIRO, SFC, MAS, MNB, FINMA, AFMStocks, Options, Futures, Forex, Funds, Bonds, ETFs, Mutual Funds, CFDs, CryptocurrenciesTrader Workstation (TWS), IBKR Desktop, GlobalTrader, Mobile, Client Portal, AlgoTrader, OmniTrader, eSignal, TradingCentralCheque, ACH Transfer, Wire Transfer, Automated Customer Account Transfer Service, TransferWise, Debit CardUSD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, INR, JPY, SEK, NOK, DKK, CHF, AED, HUF -
4OANDA USCFDs are not available to residents in the United States.
Ratings
$00.01 Lots1:50NFA, CFTCForex, Crypto with Paxos (Cryptocurrencies are offered through Paxos. Paxos is a separate legal entity from OANDA)OANDA Trade, MT4, TradingView, AutoChartistWire Transfer, Visa, Mastercard, Debit Card, ACH TransferUSD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, JPY, CHF, HKD, SGD -
5IGForex trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits.
Ratings
$00.01 Lots1:30 (Retail), 1:250 (Pro)FCA, ASIC, NFA, CFTC, DFSA, BaFin, MAS, FSCA, FINMA, CONSOB, AFMCFDs, Forex, Stocks, Indices, Commodities, ETFs, Futures, Options, Crypto, Spread BettingWeb, ProRealTime, L2 Dealer, MT4, TradingView, AutoChartist, TradingCentralPayPal, Wire Transfer, Mastercard, Credit Card, Visa, Debit CardUSD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, JPY, ZAR, SEK, DKK, CHF, HKD, SGD -
6Videforex20% to 200% Deposit Bonus
Ratings
$250$0.011:500Binary Options, CFDs, Forex, Indices, Commodities, CryptoTradingViewSkrill, Perfect Money, Bitcoin Payments, Neteller, Credit Card, Visa, Mastercard, Ethereum PaymentsUSD, EUR, GBP, AUD, RUB -
7Capitalcore40% Deposit Bonus up to $2,500
Ratings
$100.01 Lots1:2000IFSAForex, Metals, Stocks, Cryptos, Futures IndicesWebTrader, ProEthereum Payments, Mastercard, Visa, Perfect Money, Bitcoin Payments, Debit Card, Credit Card, PayPalUSD -
8Plexytrade120% Cash Welcome Bonus
Ratings
$500.011:2000CFDs, Forex, Indices, Stocks, Commodities, CryptoMT4, MT5Bitcoin Payments, Ethereum PaymentsUSD, EUR -
9Sage FX$1,500 trading competition
Ratings
$100.01 Lots1:500PendingForex, indices, cryptosTradeLockerCredit Card, Visa, Mastercard, Bitcoin Payments, Ethereum PaymentsUSD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD -
10InstaTrade
Ratings
$10.011:1000BVI FSCFISP, CFDs, Forex, Stocks, Indices, Commodities, Cryptos, FuturesInstaTrade Gear, MT4Visa, Mastercard, Wire Transfer, Credit Card, Debit Card, Bitcoin Payments, Ethereum PaymentsUSD, EUR, RUB
This is why we think these brokers are the best in this category:
- FOREX.com - FOREX.com continues to uphold its stature as a premier FX broker, offering over 80 currency pairs and boasting some of the most competitive fees in the industry. With EUR/USD spreads dipping as low as 0.0 and $5 commission per $100k, it stands out. Moreover, its SMART Signals help to identify price behaviors across numerous major currency markets.
- NinjaTrader - NinjaTraders supports the trading of popular currencies including the EUR/USD. The software also offers advanced features to streamline the trading experience, including complex order types like market if touched (MIT) and one cancels other (OCO).
- Interactive Brokers - IBKR presents an extensive range of over 100 major, minor, and exotic forex pairs, surpassing the offerings of nearly all leading alternatives, though not CMC Markets. Forex trading occurs over multiple platforms and boasts institutional-grade spreads starting from 0.1 pips and 20 complex order types, including brackets, scale, and one-cancels-all (OCA) orders.
- OANDA US - OANDA offers a diverse selection of 68 currency pairs, more than many alternatives. The broker’s in-house platform offers superb day trading capabilities via powerful TradingView charts, including 65+ technical indicators and 11 customizable chart types.
- IG - IG offers an above-average suite of 80+ currency pairs on its proprietary web platform, mobile app or MetaTrader 4, with more advanced charts and forex analysis tools available on the ProRealTime software. Forex spreads are competitive based on tests, starting from 0.1 pips on majors like the EUR/USD.
- Videforex - Videforex offers trading on 35 currency pairs through leveraged CFDs with spreads from 0.1 pips. Alternatively, traders can use binaries to speculate on upward/downward price movements with payouts up to 98%. Integrated technical analysis, economic calendars, and market news, all available within the platform, help support FX trading decisions.
- Capitalcore - Capitalcore offers a modest selection of around 35 currency pairs, which is very limited compared to CMC Markets' 300+ pairs. Spreads are lowest on the VIP account (0.4 pips on EUR/USD), but become less competitive in Classic and Silver accounts (1.5 pips on EUR/USD), and there aren't any zero spreads.
- Plexytrade - Plexytrade presents major, minor, and exotic forex pairs for trading, with leverage reaching 1:2000 and raw spreads starting from 0.0 - an enticing proposition for advanced traders seeking gains from minor price shifts. However, the downside lies in the limited selection, with only 41 currency pairs available, significantly fewer than the 100+ forex assets at IG.
- Sage FX - Trade 7 major, 21 minor and 29 exotic forex pairs with high leverage and a choice between STP or ECN accounts. Support is available around the clock and the TradeLocker forex software is provided.
- InstaTrade - InstaTrade offers a huge selection of around 100 currency pairs. It provides spreads starting at 0.0 on majors, plus integrated forex analysis in the web platform, featuring signals, plus technical and fundamental summaries. Additionally, InstaTrade offers educational modules covering forex basics for beginners, including margin trading and risk management.
Trading USD/JPY Comparison
FOREX.com
"FOREX.com remains a best-in-class brokerage for active forex traders of all experience levels, with over 80 currency pairs, tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions. The powerful charting platforms collectively offer over 100 technical indicators, as well as extensive research tools."
Christian Harris, Reviewer
FOREX.com Quick Facts
Bonus Offer | Active Trader Program With A 15% Reduction In Costs |
---|---|
GBPUSD Spread | 1.3 |
EURUSD Spread | 1.2 |
EURGBP Spread | 1.4 |
Total Assets | 80+ |
Leverage | 1:50 |
Platforms | MT4, MT5, TradingView, eSignal, AutoChartist, TradingCentral |
Account Currencies | USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, JPY, CHF, PLN |
Pros
- There’s a wealth of educational resources including tutorials, webinars, and a stacked YouTube channel to help you get educated in the financial markets.
- With over 20 years of experience, excellent regulatory oversight, and multiple accolades including runner-up in our 'Best Forex Broker' awards, FOREX.com boasts a global reputation as a trusted brokerage.
- Alongside a choice of leading platforms, FOREX.com offers a superb suite of supplementary tools including Trading Central research, SMART Signals pattern scanner, trading signals, and strategy builders.
Cons
- Demo accounts are frustratingly time-limited to 90 days, which doesn’t give you enough time to test day trading strategies effectively.
- Despite increasing its range of instruments, FOREX.com's product portfolio is still limited to forex and CFDs, so there are no options to invest in real stocks, real ETFs or real cryptocurrencies.
- There’s no negative balance protection for US clients, so you may find yourself owing more money than your initial deposit into your account.
NinjaTrader
"NinjaTrader continues to meet the demands of active futures traders looking for low fees and premium analysis tools. The platform hosts top-rate charting features including hundreds of indicators and 10+ chart types."
Tobias Robinson, Reviewer
NinjaTrader Quick Facts
GBPUSD Spread | 1.6 |
---|---|
EURUSD Spread | 1.3 |
EURGBP Spread | 1.6 |
Total Assets | 50+ |
Leverage | 1:50 |
Platforms | NinjaTrader Desktop, Web & Mobile, eSignal |
Account Currencies | USD |
Pros
- Low fees are offered, with $50 day trading margins & commissions from $.09 per micro contract
- Traders can get free platform access and trade simulation capabilities in the unlimited demo
- NinjaTrader continues to deliver comprehensive charting software for active day traders with bespoke technical indicators and widgets
Cons
- There is a withdrawal fee on some funding methods
- Non forex and futures trading requires signing up with partner brokers
- The premium platform tools come with an extra charge
Interactive Brokers
"Interactive Brokers is one of the best brokers for advanced day traders, providing powerful charting platforms, real-time data, and customizable layouts, notably through the new IBKR Desktop application. Its superb pricing and advanced order options also make it highly attractive for day traders, while its diverse range of equities is still among the best in the industry."
Christian Harris, Reviewer
Interactive Brokers Quick Facts
GBPUSD Spread | 0.08-0.20 bps x trade value |
---|---|
EURUSD Spread | 0.08-0.20 bps x trade value |
EURGBP Spread | 0.08-0.20 bps x trade value |
Total Assets | 100+ |
Leverage | 1:50 |
Platforms | Trader Workstation (TWS), IBKR Desktop, GlobalTrader, Mobile, Client Portal, AlgoTrader, OmniTrader, eSignal, TradingCentral |
Account Currencies | USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, INR, JPY, SEK, NOK, DKK, CHF, AED, HUF |
Pros
- The new IBKR Desktop platform takes the best of TWS while adding bespoke tools like Option Lattice and Screeners with MultiSort to create a genuinely impressive trading experience for day traders at every level.
- There's a vast library of free or paid third-party research subscriptions catering to all types of traders, plus you can enjoy commission reimbursements from IBKR if you subscribe to Toggle AI.
- While primarily geared towards experienced traders, IBKR has made moves to broaden its appeal in recent years, reducing its minimum deposit from $10,000 to $0.
Cons
- TWS’s learning curve is steep, and beginners may find it challenging to navigate the platform and understand all the features. Plus500's web platform is much better suited to new traders.
- You can only have one active session per account, so you can’t have your desktop program and mobile app running simultaneously, making for a sometimes frustrating trading experience.
- Support can be slow and frustrating based on tests, so you might find it challenging to reach customer service representatives promptly or encounter delays in resolving issues.
OANDA US
"OANDA remains an excellent broker for US day traders seeking a user-friendly platform with premium analysis tools and a straightforward joining process. OANDA is also heavily regulated with a very high trust score."
Jemma Grist, Reviewer
OANDA US Quick Facts
GBPUSD Spread | 3.4 |
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EURUSD Spread | 1.6 |
EURGBP Spread | 1.7 |
Total Assets | 65+ |
Leverage | 1:50 |
Platforms | OANDA Trade, MT4, TradingView, AutoChartist |
Account Currencies | USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, JPY, CHF, HKD, SGD |
Pros
- Day traders can enjoy fast and reliable order execution
- OANDA is a reliable, trustworthy and secure brand with authorization from tier-one regulators including the CFTC
- The broker's API facilitates access to 25 years of deep historical data and rates from 200+ currencies
Cons
- It's a shame that customer support is not available on weekends
- There's only a small range of payment methods available, with no e-wallets supported
- The range of day trading markets is limited to forex and cryptos only
IG
"IG continues to provide a comprehensive package with an intuitive web platform, best-in-class education for beginners, advanced charting tools bolstered by its recent TradingView integration, real-time data, and fast execution speeds for experienced day traders."
Christian Harris, Reviewer
IG Quick Facts
GBPUSD Spread | 0.9 |
---|---|
EURUSD Spread | 0.8 |
EURGBP Spread | 0.9 |
Total Assets | 80+ |
Leverage | 1:30 (Retail), 1:250 (Pro) |
Platforms | Web, ProRealTime, L2 Dealer, MT4, TradingView, AutoChartist, TradingCentral |
Account Currencies | USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, JPY, ZAR, SEK, DKK, CHF, HKD, SGD |
Pros
- The proprietary web-based platform continues to caters to traders of all levels, with advanced charting tools and real-time market data useful for day trading, while IG has also added TradingView integration.
- IG is amongst the best in terms of its range of instruments, which includes stocks, forex, indices, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, plus recently added US-listed futures and options, providing ample diversification opportunities.
- As a well-established broker, IG operates under strict regulatory guidelines in multiple jurisdictions, maintaining a high level of trust.
Cons
- IG has discontinued its swap-free account, reducing its appeal to Islamic traders.
- Beginners might find IG’s fee structure complex, with various fees for different types of trades or services, potentially leading to confusion or unexpected charges.
- IG applies an inactivity fee of $12 per month after 2 years, deterring casual investors.
Videforex
"Videforex will serve traders looking for a no-frills, easy-to-use platform to speculate on the direction of popular financial markets through binaries. With a sign-up process that takes a matter of minutes and a web-accessible platform, getting started is a breeze. "
William Berg, Reviewer
Videforex Quick Facts
Bonus Offer | 20% to 200% Deposit Bonus |
---|---|
GBPUSD Spread | 0.1 |
EURUSD Spread | 0.1 |
EURGBP Spread | 0.1 |
Total Assets | 35+ |
Leverage | 1:500 |
Platforms | TradingView |
Account Currencies | USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, RUB |
Pros
- Traders can earn up to 98% payouts on 100+ assets with the broker’s binary options, bringing it in line with competitors like IQCent.
- Videforex regularly runs trading contests, offering practice opportunities and cash prizes to beginners and experienced traders, with position sizes from just ¢0.01.
- Videforex is one of the few brokers with 24/7 multilingual video support, providing comprehensive assistance for active traders.
Cons
- The client terminal needs improvements based on our latest tests, sporting sometimes slow and unresponsive widgets which could dampen the experience for day traders.
- The absence of any educational tools is a serious drawback for newer traders who can find blogs, videos and live trading sessions at category leaders.
- Videforex lacks authorization from a trusted regulator, meaning traders may receive little to zero safeguards like segregated client accounts.
Capitalcore
"The major selling points of Capitalcore are its high leverage options up to 1:2000 and zero commission or swap fees. However, its weak regulatory oversight from the IFSA and non-existent education place it far behind the top brokers."
Christian Harris, Reviewer
Capitalcore Quick Facts
Bonus Offer | 40% Deposit Bonus up to $2,500 |
---|---|
GBPUSD Spread | 0.5 |
EURUSD Spread | 0.4 |
EURGBP Spread | 0.5 |
Total Assets | 35+ |
Leverage | 1:2000 |
Platforms | WebTrader, Pro |
Account Currencies | USD |
Pros
- The Capitalcore platform provides comprehensive charting tools and a wide range of 150+ technical indicators, ideal for detailed market analysis.
- Capitalcore is one of the only brokers to charge zero swap fees, which may appeal to Islamic traders looking to comply with Islamic Finance.
- The support team are available 24/7 and responded within minutes during testing with helpful responses.
Cons
- Capitalcore’s threadbare education and research seriously trail category leaders like IG, making it less suitable for aspiring traders.
- The web platform was inconsistent during testing, with occasional technical glitches that meant the trading platform wouldn’t load.
- Platform support is limited to proprietary software, so there's no integration with the market-leading MetaTrader or cTrader, which offer built-in economic news and support automated trading.
Plexytrade
"Plexytrade is a newcomer in the brokerage scene with attention-grabbing features like 1:2000 leverage, zero spreads on select instruments and fast execution speeds of less than 46 milliseconds. However, the absence of regulation is a significant concern, while the non-existent research and educational tools place it far behind industry frontrunners."
Christian Harris, Reviewer
Plexytrade Quick Facts
Bonus Offer | 120% Cash Welcome Bonus |
---|---|
GBPUSD Spread | 0.8 |
EURUSD Spread | 0.7 |
EURGBP Spread | 1.1 |
Total Assets | 40+ |
Leverage | 1:2000 |
Platforms | MT4, MT5 |
Account Currencies | USD, EUR |
Pros
- There are various VPS packages starting from $50 per month, but they become complimentary once specific deposit thresholds are reached.
- US residents are accepted as clients, distinguishing Plexytrade as one of the rare offshore brokers that cater to US-based traders.
- Plexytrade offers among the highest leverage we’ve seen, up to 1:2000, catering to advanced traders willing to forego regulatory protections.
Cons
- There are no research and educational materials, falling short of alternatives like IG, while access to the economic calendar is restricted to clients with balances of $500.
- Plexytrade lacks regulation in major jurisdictions, significantly increasing the risks of opening an account and depositing funds.
- With around 100 instruments, Plexytrade restricts the flexibility of investors who prefer to trade across various assets, especially compared to Blackbull with its 26,000 securities.
Sage FX
"Sage FX will suit forex traders looking for high leverage and ECN spreads. The broker's prop trading service will also appeal to users looking for funded accounts with up to $200K available."
Tobias Robinson, Reviewer
Sage FX Quick Facts
Bonus Offer | $1,500 trading competition |
---|---|
GBPUSD Spread | 0.9 |
EURUSD Spread | 0.9 |
EURGBP Spread | 2.5 |
Total Assets | 57 |
Leverage | 1:500 |
Platforms | TradeLocker |
Account Currencies | USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD |
Pros
- Low starting deposit from $10
- Fast withdrawal processing
- Bonus offers and trading competitions
Cons
- Relatively narrow range of asset classes
- Lacks educational resources and other extra features
- Not regulated by any reputable body
InstaTrade
"Although InstaTrade offers active trading on a comprehensive platform, it stands out with its fairly unique Fixed Income Structured Product (FISP), providing passive investment opportunities with up to 50% returns in 6 months if conditions are met. "
Christian Harris, Reviewer
InstaTrade Quick Facts
GBPUSD Spread | 0.2 |
---|---|
EURUSD Spread | 0.0 |
EURGBP Spread | 2.8 |
Total Assets | 65 |
Leverage | 1:1000 |
Platforms | InstaTrade Gear, MT4 |
Account Currencies | USD, EUR, RUB |
Pros
- InstaTrade claims to "guarantee" returns through the structured element of its passive trading solution (FISP), with applications approved within 24 hours.
- InstaTrade delivers an excellent suite of charting tools for day traders with its web trader comprising 250+ indicators, 11 chart types and a user-friendly design.
- VPS hosting caters to algo trading strategies with a dedicated physical server providing rapid execution speeds as low as 9 milliseconds.
Cons
- InstaTrade sports one of the most cluttered websites and client cabinets in the industry, potentially overwhelming new traders, especially compared to XTB’s intuitive trading journey and resources.
- Marketing of the FISP, especially phrasing around the “guarantee of profitability” and the “elimination of risks of trading on financial markets” raises concerns.
- InstaTrade’s growing educational tools provide valuable information for aspiring traders, but still trail category leaders like eToro with no structured course based on experience level.
Chart
Breaking Down ‘USD/JPY’
Firstly, what precisely does USD/JPY actually mean? Quite simply, it represents the exchange rate between the US dollar and Japanese yen. So, the figure you see quoted is how many Japanese yen you need to buy one US dollar. The US dollar is the base currency in this major currency pair.
Rich volatility and volume see a daily turnover in excess of $900 billion. This makes the USD/JPY the second most traded currency pair in the world, after the EUR/USD. Furthermore, it’s responsible for approximately 17.7% of the forex daily turnover.
Why Day Trade USD/JPY?
There are a number of reasons why realtime USD/JPY day trading is an enticing prospect. Some of the most appealing characteristics are as follows:
- Relatively low spreads – The USD/JPY remains popular. This is partly because of its comparatively low bid-ask spreads.
- Volatility – This currency pair displays high levels of volatility, often driven by Asian market forces. As a result of this implied volatility, day traders have plenty of opportunities to turn a profit.
- Volume – As it is based on two of the most active currencies in the world, market volume is huge. As a result, this popularity ensures finding trading tips and forex signals is relatively easy.
- Predictability – The USD/JPY market is often linked to commodities trading in Japan. So, research and analysis are relatively straightforward. In fact, you can look to global imports and exports to gauge market sentiment.
- Diverse trading vehicles – As such a popular currency pair, there are numerous trading vehicles you can use to generate profits. From E-mini and E-micro USD/JPY futures to options, ETFs, and more.
- Beginner friendly – Relatively smooth trends and fantastic liquidity makes the USD/JPY pair appealing to both beginners and experienced traders.
- Availability of resources – In many ways, conducting technical analysis from with a streaming chart is easier now than ever before. This is because you have direct access to bar charts, average daily ranges, exchange rate history graphs, and more. For example, conducting Elliott wave analysis is more straightforward. In addition, there is an active online trading community, in the form of blogs. Also, websites offer up-to-date market reviews and hourly forecasts.
So, firstly this pair is one of the most actively traded. Also, technical outlook and availability of resources add to the benefits the USD/JPY currency pair offers.
USD/JPY Drawbacks
Before you load up your live online USD/JPY chart and decide whether to buy or sell, you should also be aware of the associated drawbacks and risks:
- BoJ intervention – The BoJ has a habit of intervening in the forex market when price action and movements may threaten economic growth and the Japanese export industry. So, traders must keep abreast of BoJ developments. If not, you may be in be for a short, sharp, and expensive surprise.
- Volatility – Whilst volatility is a benefit, it can also mean sudden price fluctuations. If traders aren’t vigilant, a winning position can quickly become a costly loss. For example, natural disasters can have a huge impact on their closed economy. So, the USD/JPY is accompanied by a serious degree of risk.
- Dangers of leverage – Whilst borrowing funds enables you to capitalise on winning opportunities, it can also amplify losses. So, when margin trading is used with a volatile pair like the USD/JPY, it can be all too easy to lose serious capital.
- Automated competition – Traders of today face a significant challenge in the form of trading algorithms. These intelligent bots can use yearly charts and current drops to make forecasts now. You’re still manually drawing head and shoulders patterns. However, these automated systems are already entering and exiting positions. As a result, competitive forward rates and US dollar vs Japanese yen forecasts for this coming week are more important than ever.
Overall, the USD/JPY pair has its advantages. However, it also comes with challenges. This is all the more reason to learn how to read the USD/JPY and conduct a thorough market analysis.
Influences On Movement
Accurate USD/JPY chart investing requires a detailed understanding of what causes movement. Therefore, the most significant influences are as follows:
- Economic strength – The greatest influence on the USD/JPY relationship will always be respective economic strength. When the US economy suffers, the yen is likely to strengthen, and vice versa. Unemployment rates, wage growth and industrial production are just some of the key economic indicators.
- Japanese imports vs exports – When the Japanese import more than they export, the US dollar strengthens against the yen, as they are purchasing more than they are selling. On top of that, because Japan is a huge exporter, trading relations with countries such as China can also impact the USD/JPY pair.
- Japanese national disasters – Due to its size, any natural disasters can have a substantial effect. However, the US economy is unlikely to be impacted to such a significant extent.
- Pace of currency growth – On the whole, the US economy grows at a much faster rate than that of Japan. In fact, the yen has been growing slowly in recent years. As a result, this means there has been a consistent downward trend against the US dollar.
- Government intervention – The Federal Reserve of the US (Fed) and the BoJ are responsible for monetary policies. Although this is currently of particular importance in Japan. This because the government has introduced a number of initiatives to bolster the economy. So, traders should pay close attention to any breaking news in relation to new measures, such as changes to interest rates, quantitive easing, and inflation.
To conclude, spotting trade opportunities in the USD/JPY requires an understanding of how these underlying forces work to tip the balance in favour of each currency. With that knowledge, telling whether prices will start going up or down may be easier.
Currency Correlations
Currencies do not move independently of each other and the USD/JPY pair is no exception. In fact, the USD/CHF and EUR/USD are the two other pairs with the highest correlation to the USD/JPY. The former has a positive correlation, and the latter a negative correlation.
- Positive correlation – This is when currency reacts in line with each other. For example, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and EUR/USD are all correlated. This is a result of the US dollar being the counter currency, so any changes in the US dollar will be felt in all pairs.
- Negative correlation – When currency pairs move in the opposite direction, they are negatively correlated. In fact, this happens in the USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD. This is a result of the US dollar being the base currency.
Of course, it isn’t quite that straightforward, the degree of correlation can also change. It is taken as a measurement from -1 to +1. So, an understanding of this will allow you to use movements in other pairs to predict fluctuations in the USD/JPY.
In fact, there are several Japanese yen pairs that are highly correlated to the USD/JPY:
- CAD/JPY
- CHF/JPY
- EUR/JPY
- SGD/JPY
- HKF/JPY
USD/JPY & Gold Correlation
It’s also worth pointing out that although gold is not a currency per say, as a result of electronic trading capabilities, it is now traded in much the same way. The yen is actually highly correlated to gold. So, USD/JPY and XAU/USD (gold/US dollar) are negatively correlated. The higher USD/JPY moves, the lower gold usually goes.
So, technical analysis now needs to cover more than the basics of support and resistance levels. If you can also utilise currency correlations to your advantage, you may be able to factor greater returns into your profit calculator.
USD/JPY Day Trading Strategy
Timing
Whether you opt for a USD/JPY scalping or breakout strategy, when you trade could make all the difference to your intraday profits. This is because in the day trading forex space, timing is everything.
Capitalising on USD/JPY targets requires trading during prime time slots. FX day trading may be available 24/7, but you could be better off focusing on quality rather than quantity.
Normally, when London and Europe are open for business, pairs with the Euro, British pound, and Swiss franc are most actively traded. Then, when New York opens, currency pairs with the US dollar and Canadian dollar gather momentum.
The USD/JPY, however, doesn’t quite follow this tradition. The pair sees relatively consistent volume throughout the day, of course with occasional spikes in volatility. Having said that, it is fairly accepted that the best time day trade the USD/JPY is between 1200 and 1500 GMT. Both London and New York are at full pace in this period. Although Tokyo’s opening time comes afterwards, the biggest daily moves often take place during this time frame.
At these times, you will also benefit from the tightest spreads and potentially the greatest opportunities to generate profits. So, check for intraday volatility and focus your trading capital into this time slot.
Rise & Shine
Determined USD/JPY day traders are at their desk premarket, preparing for the trading day ahead. Furthermore, they may have their economic calendar in front of them, along with historical exchange rate data on an Excel spreadsheet. Whilst everyone else is just waking up, they’ve poured through discussion forums and data, so they have clear expectations for the day ahead. Related stock shifts and daily pivot points may surprise others, but early risers are often ready and waiting to react. By closing time, unlike most, they haven’t sunk into the red.
So, in the forex world, where short and sharp reversals are a regular occurrence, preparation is key. Even if it means working outside of your normal market hours.
Simple Moving Average Cross & Bounce
The good news is, the USD/JPY is ideal for intraday trading. In fact, you can often see spikes between the 20 to 40 pip range within the first few minutes of the market’s opening. So, what strategy can you use to capitalise on rich price action movement?
The simple moving average cross and bounce is a straightforward strategy to set up and execute. Although some prefer USD/JPY 15-minute charts, this technique works best with a 4-hour candlestick chart.
The indicators you will need are as follows:
- MA (50/200)
- BB (20)
Buy Entry Rules
1. The BB (MA20) must be above MA (50).
2. Price needs to cross above both BB (MA20) and MA (50).
3. Price also must test BB (MA20) as support whilst above MA (50).
4. Look for bullish confirmation candle from support.
5. Enter a buy/long entry.
Sell Entry Rules
1. BB (MA20) needs to be below MA (50).
2. Price has to cross below both BB (MA20) and MA (50).
3. Price needs to test BB (MA20) for the resistance whilst staying below MA (50).
4. Look for a bearish confirmation candle from resistance.
5. Place a short/sell entry.
To minimise risk you should also look to incorporate stop-losses. So, place a stop-loss at the bottom/top wick of the confirmation candle, dependant of course, on whether you are buying or selling. You should then allow the price to move in the trade direction.
Once the price retests MA (20), you should move the stop-loss to the top/bottom wick of the candle. Keep repeating this until the price no longer stays above/below MA (20) and hits the stop-loss.
News
The latest market news updates on the USD/JPY currency pair can quickly affect market sentiment and lead to shifts. However, you can only capitalise on these moments if you understand how the markets reacted last time something like this happened.
So, to keep abreast of live news updates, recommendations, daily, weekly, and monthly forecasts, plus technical analysis and commentary, consider some of the popular resources below:
- Bloomberg
- Forex Factory
- Yahoo Finance
- Google Finance
- Reuters
- CNBC
In addition, here are just a few more benefits some of the sources above can offer:
- Daily forex outlook.
- Latest USD/JPY forecasts for 2018.
- Historical prices.
- 20-years, 30-years, and 50-years worth of historical graphs and long-term charts.
- Trading definitions.
- Weekly and monthly data.
- An overview of yesterday’s USD/JPY performance and prices.
Regardless of whether your USD/JPY strategy focuses on resistance and support levels, or whether it centres around news events, being aware of current updates in the forex space could seriously enhance your technical analysis.
History
Japanese Economy
To make accurate USD/JPY predictions and forecasts, it also helps to understand some key events in the pair’s relationship.
Japan may lack natural resources and geographic size, but their work ethic, success with technologies, and boundary-pushing manufacturing techniques have ensured the economy has flourished since the damage it suffered in World War II. As a result, today the Japanese economy stands as the largest after the US and China.
However, historical data and news show us the Japanese economy came upon hard times in the early 1990s. This is because the real estate and domestic equity bubbles burst. As a result, the economydecelerated and there was substantial deflation.
However, the last twenty years have seen the introduction of a number of measures by the Japanese government and Bank of Japan (BoJ) to rejuvenate the economy. Whilst not totally successful, there is little debate that their economy today is a major player on the global stage.
Why does all this matter if you want to start day trading on the USD/JPY? Because an understanding of what and how previous factors have influenced economic strength and growth will give you a clearer future forex outlook. All of which may result in more accurate predictions and forecasts.
Japenese Yen
Since its introduction in July of 1871, the yen has flourished, becoming the most traded currency in Asia, and the third most popular in the world, following the US dollar and euro. On the whole, when the Japanese economy performs well, the yen increases in strength against the dollar.
In fact, steps that were taken to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy have lead to the yen becoming an increasingly popular carry trade. This is where investors sell the yen to buy higher-yielding currencies. This constant selling has kept the yen at a much lower trade level than it may have reached otherwise. See our carry trade page for more details.
In conclusion, this all means USD/JPY traders need to keep abreast of new data and information about Japan’s economic growth and recovery. So, if a rise in rates takes place and the popularity of the yen carry trade diminishes, this could result in a strengthening of the yen.
US Dollar
The US dollar has been the standard US monetary unit for over two hundred years. However, whilst the Japanese yen and the economy suffered from World War II, the years that followed the war saw the US economy and dollar boom. This is partly because of the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement.
In fact, if you load up a graph and look at USD/JPY historical exchange rate data, you will quickly see this agreement played a huge part in securing the success of the US dollar. Specifically, it ensured the US dollar’s place as the world’s official reserve currency.
Recent History
The USD/JPY relationship has seen significant fluctuations in recent years. Both currencies and economies have had their ups and downs. 2013 in particular, highlighted some interesting results. For example:
- The US dollar was on one side of a staggering 87% of all forex trades.
- The Japanese yen, however, saw the largest increase in trading activity of the other major currencies, rising by 63% from 2010.
- Also, in April of 2013, the USD/JPY trading reflected 18.3% of total FX turnover, an increase of 4% from just three years ago.
USD/JPY historical data has shown both economies and currencies have had their moments in recent years. However, understanding what has caused their successes and shortfalls will enable you to better predict and react to future reports.
Role of USD
You can’t get a clear view of the USD/JPY relationship without understanding the significant role the US dollar plays. So below are just a few ways it holds a unique position in global finance:
- Numerous banks around the world hold currency reserves in US dollar.
- Many small countries even opt to use US dollar instead of their own currency or peg their currency to its value.
- OPEC countries also use the US dollar to conduct oil transactions.
- It is often used to settle international financial transactions.
- Gold prices and other popular commodities are also frequently set in US dollars.
- It is currently the most commonly traded currency in the world.
- The US is the second largest trading nation, after China.
- The US represents around 25% of the global nominal GDP.
- Services such as real estate, financial services, transportation, and healthcare form nearly 80% of its GDP.
Aspiring day traders would be wise to get an understanding of the reach and prominence the US dollar holds. In fact, monitoring US economic strength will help you to forecast how the USD/JPY will strengthen or weaken in favour of the US dollar. However, effective monitoring means looking out for signals and economic indicators. Some of the key reports to follow include:
- Trade Balance
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Non-farm payrolls
- ISM Non-manufacturing
- ISM Manufacturing
- Trade Balance
- Federal Reserve Minutes
- Retail Sales
- Industrial production
So, by looking at charts and historical graphs, you get a feel for why certain currency pairings react as they do. Hourly charts and key levels may be important for your forex outlook today, but so too is information on events decades ago. Overall, all will enhance your understanding of what drives movement in the USD/JPY currency pair.
Role of JPY
It’s all too easy to focus your attention on the strength and role of the US dollar. However, the Japanese yen also plays a vital role. This is because it is the most liquid currency in Asia. Which also makes it a gauge for Asian economic growth.
In times of economic instability and volatility in Asia, traders often respond by buying or selling the yen. This is because other Asian currencies are more challenging to trade. A spike of which, can seriously impact market prices and quotes for the USD/JPY.
Also, it is traded in such high volume because the yen is accompanied by extremely low-interest rates. In recent years, the BoJ has purchased a substantial volume of yen to increase inflation. As a result, the ven has devalued alongside the increase of money supply. Exports surge, as do the price of imports, particularly commodities.
Due to its ranking as the third most traded currency after the US dollar and euro, it is also the world’s fourth reserve currency, following the US dollar, euro, and pound sterling.
Understanding the yen’s global role will allow you to better evaluate trends in the USD/JPY, not to mention conduct realtime fundamental analysis.
Final Word
In conclusion, the USD/JPY currency pairing ranks second for liquidity. In addition, its behaviour promises day traders precisely the volume and volatility required to yield profits. However, competition is fierce and an understanding of all the market forces at play will be needed to assert an edge.
So, you will have to conduct your own expert analysis, using interactive daily, weekly, and historical charts to make accurate projections. You will also need a forex trading platform that compliments your trading style. However, if you tick those boxes, plus utilise the resources outlined on this page, generating those rich forex profits may be a possibility.
For more guidance, see our forex page.