OPEC Lowers Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast For Fifth Consecutive Month
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024, marking the fifth consecutive monthly downgrade.
The organisation now predicts a rise of 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd), down from its earlier estimate of 1.82 million bpd, signalling mounting concerns about a slowdown in global and regional energy consumption.
China’s Demand Growth Downgraded
China, traditionally a key driver of global oil demand, has seen its growth projections slashed significantly.
OPEC now expects China’s oil demand to grow by only 430,000 bpd, a stark reduction from the 760,000 bpd projected just a few months ago in July.
This adjustment reflects economic challenges within China, including weaker industrial activity, softer consumer demand, and a sluggish real estate sector—all of which contribute to a reduced appetite for crude oil.
2025 Outlook Also Revised Downward
Looking further ahead, OPEC has also trimmed its oil demand growth forecast for 2025, projecting an increase of 1.45 million bpd, slightly below earlier expectations. This conservative outlook indicates a cautious approach by OPEC in light of ongoing uncertainties in the global economy.
Signals Of Slowing Demand
The consistent downgrades highlight concerns about a broader deceleration in energy demand, both globally and within key economies like China. Slowing industrial production, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing transition toward renewable energy sources are collectively impacting the outlook for oil consumption.
Broader Implications For The Oil Market
The reduced forecasts have significant implications for oil producers, policymakers, and markets. Lower-than-expected demand growth could weigh on oil prices, potentially challenging OPEC’s production strategies.
The revisions also underscore the delicate balance OPEC must maintain between stabilising prices and managing output in an era of energy transition.
As the world grapples with economic challenges and the push for greener alternatives, OPEC’s latest report underscores the evolving dynamics of global oil demand in a shifting energy landscape.
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Data: eToro, MarketScreener